REAL SEEDS FOR THE REAL STATE

With the coaches, there is a bit of gamesmanship—trying to avoid certain matchups until the final day for example. Every year there are head scratchers. Probably not as egregious as last year, but there were some big question marks. AAAA was about as right as you can go. With the unseeded randomly selected you always have those issues. My guess is this may be the final year of the unseeded. People always have been asking to seed 64 teams. Right now the move might be to seed eight instead of five. That would be a good step. AAA has turmoil. The calculus of roster changes will not really be felt until games are underway, and then it will be too late to correct the seeds. It appears that the QRF was the basis of many votes. Alexandria was #3 in that final poll. Of course Stewartville’s win over the Cardinals either did not matter, or was forgotten about. The loss to Orono at home is hard to explain. Stewartville was 7-1 vs. top 10 teams this year, Alex 1-3. In AA the QRF did not have as big a pull. There Minnehaha was #2. Albany was #2 in the AP poll. But it is Goodhue that is the real #2 seed, both over one loss teams Albany and New London-Spicer. In A the QRF put BBE #3 among the survivors. But they ended up #5 in the real seeds. The log jam in 2North was one factor in the seeds with the #3 in that subsection BOLD pulling two straight upsets of BLHS and then Mayer Lutheran, who was sitting at the #2 spot in the AP poll along with the QRF.

As it is the polls will wash out quickly. The real court action will decide the champions. It will be a matter of nailing the basics; paying attention to details; surviving the inevitable droughts and taking advantage of opponents when they are in a funk. Staying together as a unit, and playing like the team belongs there will go a long way in determining winners and losers.

Here are the games scheduled and seeded.

AAAA

Roseville Area vs #1 Hopkins

#5 Lakeville North vs #4 Stillwater Area

Eagan vs. #2 STMA

Centennial vs #3 Eden Prairie

AAA

Marshall vs #1 Becker

#5 Grand Rapids vs #4 Stewartville

DeLaSalle vs #2 Benilde-St Margaret’s

Hill-Murray vs #3 Alexandria Area

AA

Lake Crystal-WM vs #1 Providence

#5 Minnehaha vs #4 NLS

Crosby-Ironton vs #2 Goodhue

Perham vs #3 Albany

A

Minneota vs #1 Mountain Iron-Buhl

#5 BBE vs #4 Underwood

Badger-GB-MR vs vs #2 Hayfield

United Christian Academy vs #3 BOLD

So if you had to choose one tournament—what would it be?

To me the most fluid tournament could be A. It seems the others are pretty heavy on who is favored. I like the AA field, and would consider that to be anyone’s contest, but with Providence in the field I believe a lot of teams will be fighting for second. Could we see another 126-93 type NBA fest in the AA semis between private powers Providence and Minnehaha? I hope the scoreboard has extra light bulbs incase of overuse. The AAA event could almost be called the private school invitational. Three of the eight were going to be privates—that is because sections 3, 4 and 6 were all battles of privates vs. privates. All are metro based. The other five are from “greater” Minnesota. Becker is on the metro fringe, but also has a foot in the outstate. AAAA should simply be called the Lake Conference invitational. With the top three seeds and a couple of other teams that are home watching the proceedings that conference has established themselves as the gold standard. With the carnage of #1s dropping, some of the luster has come off that event.

What is the best available quarterfinal games? Usually, a #4 v #5 would fit the bill here. Both AA & A have promise there. If I must choose one of the 4v5s it would be Minnehaha vs New London-Spicer.

What unseeded team has the best chance to move on? My antennae points to Crosby-Ironton vs Goodhue, the #2 in AA. CI has won a dozen in a row including then ranked teams Detroit Lakes, Pequot Lakes (twice), New London-Spicer, and Minnehaha. Is there such a thing as Ranger Danger? Only if you are not paying attention to the signs. A couple of the unseeded A match ups are interesting. MIB and Minneota will reprise their showdown from a year ago, but the Vikings have underwent several graduations. BGMR is an unknown quantity, as is the whole of 8A. At five hours one way to get to a game, the chances are I am not getting to a game. Will the Gators suffer jet lag on their way down to the metro?

By the way the last and only time all #1 seeds won the tournament came in 2018—-Eastview; Cooper; Sauk Centre; Lyle-Pacelli.

ONES AND DONE

Half the AAAA field will not be a one seed, the most of any classification. A lost three 1s (or pairs of ones with subsections). AAA & AA both had a pair leave.

AAAA: Chaska #1 & #1; Rosemount, East Ridge (4), Maple Grove (5)

AAA: Jordan (2); Mahtomedi (4)

AA: St. Croix Lutheran (4), Pequot Lakes (7)

A: Mayer Lutheran (2N) & Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s (2S); Lac qui Parle Valley (3N) & Southwest MN Christian (3S); Heritage Christian (4);

DANGER….DANGER

Here is the continuation of the danger signs. Pay heed.

AAAA-#3 Stillwater kept their upset string going with the win over East Ridge.

AAA-#4 Marshall in section 2 got their second revenge win—this time the victim was St. Peter—-at St. Peter (or should I say Gustavus).

A: BOLD toppled Mayer Lutheran in the 2A North finals. ML was #2 overall in the state at the time.

WEEKLY TEAM REVIEW

The doubling up of games slowed down this week with only Monday and Wednesday providing multiple games. Also, with no Saturday action the amount of games covered this week ended up to be seven. Most of the action again took place in the distant reaches of the state (about three hours away from my home). Highway 10 was the mother road. Last Saturday (Wadena), Tuesday (Perham) and Wednesday (Detroit Lakes) were stopping points. Highway 10 was almost called to duty on Friday with a potential excursion to Thief River Falls for the 8A championship, but instead I was in the northeast portion of the state. Cromwell was the biggest fish alive that I had not charted. As it is BGMR survived their battle with Fosston and so I will get to them on Thursday at the state. Of the 14 teams this week eight were new to the eyes. Of those eight, five were of the A variety. The biggest capture was Wednesday at Detroit Lakes with three 8AA teams seen for the first time. The pp100s ticked up this week with 84.8, up 1.6 over last week, and this is to be expected with higher level teams playing. Winners increased slightly up 0.2 from week 14 to 95.1. Winners were 20.7 better in the pp100, which narrowed the margin from the week before by almost three points. There were only two centurions this week with Mountain Iron-Buhl topping everyone with 108.1 pp100. There were four others that made the 90+ division, including Wayzata who lost to Hopkins in overtime in the 6AAAA final. That was the “best” game of the week on two levels—the losing team’s pp100 with 91.9 and the differential of 1.4 between the two. Let’s just say it was a game worthy of a state championship.

WEEK AHEAD

The stage is now set. Six games on Wednesday, five potential on Thursday, and then we close with four each on Friday and Saturday for a grand total of 19 games. Only two teams remain uncharted and that will be addressed in the A quarterfinals (I am looking at you BGMR & United Christian).

31 CLUB

With seven games available eight players joined the 31 club with a pair upgrading their experience to the 41 Club. 31 Clubbers were 7-1 on the week. Two teams provided two players and both those teams have had numerous weeks atop the polls: Hopkins & Mountain Iron-Buhl. Top mark of the week belonged to Kadence Hesse of Sleepy Eye with a 43 in their win over cross town rival St. Mary’s. Taylor Woodson of Hopkins joined her with a 41 on the nose in the titanic battle on Thursday with Wayzata. The centurions only came to four with the top mark going to Sage Ganyo of MIB with a 123.1. She just edged out teammate Jordan Zubich who had a 122.2. The only player that didn’t win this week was also the youngest: Kate Amelotte of Wayzata is a frosh.

SOLOISTS

Only AA has the soloists still playing. Eden Prairie plucked Chaska off the AAAA listing on Friday. Can one of the trio in AA get by unscathed this week? Beware of the Lions.

AAAA 0: none
AAA 0: none
AA 3: Albany, Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial, New London-Spicer
A 0: none

STREAKING

Two alterations this week. Chaska exited with the loss to Eden Prairie on Friday. Grand Meadow saw the curtain close on their state chances also on Friday. That means two new leaders take over: Hopkins in AAAA, & Mountain Iron-Buhl in A. Both of those leaders are under 20 wins—-indeed no team in AAAA cracked double digits. Grand Rapids & Providence now share top billing with 26 straight wins.

AAAA: 7 Hopkins
AAA: 26 Grand Rapids
AA: 26 Providence
A: 19 Mountain Iron-Buhl

SEARCH FOR 100

I got this done last week. So my streak is at 109. #110 is Rock Ridge. Two  more teams will get charted this week BGMR now at 115 and United Christian at 209.

Looking at the top 10s more improvements in A with 90%. It will be 100% once BGMR is charted. The other classes are complete at 100%.

Looking at the real state seeds A is now at 75%. Again, it will be 100% after Thursday.

The #1s in each section is/were 100% in AAAA, AAA; & AA. A lags behind at 61.5% with only one more uptick in the works with BGMR, the #1 in 8W. United Christian was not a one seed

Measure/In/%/Improvement
1-10/10/100%/-
1-25/25/100%/-
1-50/50/100%/–
1-75/75/100%/–
1-100/100/100%/–
1-125/122/97.6/94.4%/+3.2
1-150/139/92.7/88.7%/+4.0
1-175/154/88%/84%/+4.0
1-200/167/83.5%/79.5%/+4.0

SEEDING THE STATE

So the real seeds are out. The question is who is better at seeding? Me in November? Or me last week?

November me called four of the eight AAAA sections with Hopkins as a #1 and Lakeville North as a #5 right on. Centennial was also correct since a #6 equals unseeded. St. Michael I had then as a #3. Minnetonka, Maple Grove, East Ridge and Rosemount failed to reach state. Three of those were #1 seeds in their section. Tonka just missed out in the semis with a two point loss to Chaska.

AAA seems that I was clairvoyant. All the teams I selected in November are there, AND in the right seeding order. The unseeded are 6 through 8. Why didn’t I buy a lottery ticket that day?

AA is a little bit messier. Kind of like AAAA. I was on the money with Providence as a #1. Goodhue was then a #3, now a #2. Perham is unseeded as is LCWM, so four correct. My misses included St. Croix Lutheran and Pequot Lakes, both #1 seeds in their section, and Sauk Centre and Montevideo, both #2 seeds in their respective sections.

In A I again called four correctly with two in their current state: BBE at #5, and United Christian unseeded (I had at #7) . Mountain Iron-Buhl was the #2 then behind Hancock. The Owls did not get to state. Hayfield was the #3, now #2.

Last week I was only 3/8 in AAAA with Hopkins holding the top spot correctly. STMA & LN were the only correct picks. Again four of the others were #1 seeds that stumbled in the final game. I had #2 section seed over #1 Centennial in seven based on their last regular season meeting. The Cougars turned that table.

AAA last week was wrong on two counts—St. Peter, who would have been unseeded and Totino-Grace. I was spot on with Becker, Benilde, Stewartville. I had DeLaSalle getting a seed at #5. The Islanders were unseeded. Alexandria leaped past three teams in my analysis to the third spot. Grand Rapids, with their situation, was unable to hold on to the three spot. So how did the Cardinals, who lost to Stewartville, jump to #3?? Too much turmoil in that class.

Last week I was somewhat better in AA than I was in November with my late move to Glencoe-Silver Lake incorrect. I had LCWM all year until then. They go, the Wildcats don’t. Goodhue was one better in the final seed and Albany one less. A flip of two and three. I had jumped Crosby-Ironton to #4 after a series of wins over quality opponents. Instead New London & Minnehaha each moved up one spot, CI down to six (or unseeded).

My hot take on A is hot off the presses so to speak. I have seen six of the eight section winners within the last week. With the unseen I had Heritage Christian coming out unseeded instead of United Christian, and I missed out on BGMR. BBE is on a roll and they were not given their due I believe. They are only a #5. They probably could have been a #2 seed. BOLD, who lived & survived in brutal 2North, comes in at #3. I had Minneota on the outside looking in, but for a program that has been in the finals four straight years, the Vikings were not ready to go quietly. Hayfield jumps two spots from my final last week to #2.