For the week:
Five games: 3 new teams (7 duplicates) 25 new players, 520.2 miles
For the season: 148 games, 229 teams (31 duplicates), 2276 players, 13,582.1 miles
Or 43.81 trips back and forth to Romano Gym at UMD in Duluth.
Only 32 teams remain in the hunt for a state title. The toil and grind of the last four months has winnowed the 402 schools down to 32 in the last two weeks. Now it is a chance to compete for a title for the last two hours of the season. Four will be crowned come Saturday.
Week 16 started with my quest to see as many different teams as possible. Two more were crossed off on Monday at Gustavus Adolphus College at St. Peter. One more was added (or crossed off) at Romano (not Ray) at UM Duluth. That left me at 155, a new record, but shy of 200 by about 17 schools.
REAR VIEW MIRROR
MONDAY:
Game 1: 2AN Championship: Buffalo Lake-Hector-Stewart 86, Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s 62
#1 seed BLHS used a strong start in the first half and then withstood #3 seed’s SESM’s comeback attempt in the second half to move to the title game of 2A. It was 11-3 Mustangs when the Knights called their first time out at 13:45 in the first half. That lead expanded to 34-12 with 5:30 left. At half things had not really changed with BLHS up 42-22. Once the BLHS lead hit 30 (57-27) early in the first half SESM started their rise. Three straight 3s helped propel the Knight’s resurgence. The Mustang lead shrank to 19 with over twelve minutes to go. It was going to be a hard road to cut any more. The BLHS balance had four players scoring between 17 and 25 points. SESM’s energy came from Morgan Mathiowetz and her 34 points. She also crashed the 51 Club.
Game 2: 2AS Championship: Springfield 61, GHECTML 55
#3 seed Springfield surprised #1 GHECTML in the second game. An even first half with the Jaguars leading 28-27 quickly switched over to the Tigers when they scored the first eight points of the second half on their first four possessions prompting a GHECTML time out at 16:26 and trailing 35-28. They would not recover. Marissa Pabst had six of those points on her way to a game high 22. Pabst was her number (11) for her number on twos for the night. The Tigers tacked on another two points after the time out. Three of those sequences were deep rebounds and off to the races. GHECTML did get the margin down to four a couple of times, the last window with under 45 seconds left. Springfield cashed in four of six free throws down the stretch to maintain their advantage. This was the first (and only time it turned out) all section tournament that I charted a game where the white jerseys were victorious. All the other times the solid colors prevailed.
WEDNESDAY: 7A Semifinals
GAME 1: Cromwell-Wright 57, Ely 51
The #1South seed Cardinals overcame a ten-point first half deficit to advance to the title game in 7A. The Timberwolves, the last team left I charted to get to 150 (or 155), rode the first half shooting of Grace LaTourell and Hannah Penke. Together the seniors combined for 34 points. At the break Ely was thinking about an upset leading 33-28. CW bounced back in the second half with the long ball. Two straight 3s helped CW tie the game at 44 with nine minutes left. With 3:45 left Mya Gronner delivered the 3 that put CW up for good 51-48. Another 3 by Emaleigh Olesiak gave the Cardinals the breathing room to be somewhat comfortable down the stretch. It still was a two-possession game with under a minute to go. Both teams knocked down seven 3s and both shot 33% from long distances for the night. The difference was the timing. Ely built their lead on early 3s. CW won the game on late 3s.
GAME 2: Mountain Iron-Buhl 81, South Ridge 36
The defending state A champs rolled to a running time win over the overmatched Panthers. Ten different Rangers contributed points in the win. MIB connected on ten 3s and shot a sizzling 67% on 2s, helped by nine transition buckets ignited by 18 steals. Future Tar Heel Jordan Zubich had 22 points.
THURSDAY: 4AAA Championship: DeLaSalle 75, Mahtomedi 62
With all the teams that could be charted done I was able to pick and choose a contest. With my previous three years at Mahtomedi and the game at Stillwater it was an easy choice. The #1 ranked Islanders moved back to state after switching sections. The game was a bit closer than it appeared. DLS led by two at the break (31-29), stretched it out to double digits before one last gasp by the Zephyrs cut it back to two (54-52) with about 7:20 left in the game. DLS responded by scoring on their next five straight possessions and the lead was back to 8 with 5:36 left. Three Islanders scored 20, 19, and 19. The tops for the Zephs was 18 by senior Ella Kletti.
WAITING….WAITING….WAITING….& IN!!!
Three schools are on their way to their first state tournament: Minneapolis Roosevelt and Rock Ridge in AAA and Walker-Hackensack-Akeley in A. To be honest Rock Ridge made up of Virginia and Eveleth-Gilbert, did go as the Virginia Blue Devils in 1990 and 1992. But as the new creation—the first time. Roosevelt and Walker have both been playing since the 70s so their wait has been extremely long. Roosevelt had the rug pulled out from under them when Minnehaha stunned and ambushed the Teddies in the section final in 2010. The Redhawks went on to win the state AA championship that year.
LOW SEEDS
All the #1s in AAAA made the dance. This is a first for a virus free event. It should make a strong tournament field in that class. There were hits in the other classes.
Here are some of the non-#1s that slipped by with a pair of 4s:
AAA: Stewartville (#3 in 1); Totino-Grace (#4 in 5)
AA: Rochester Lourdes (#2 in 1); Waterville-Elysian-Morristown (#4 in 2A South; Crosby-Ironton (#2 in 7)
A: Underwood (#2 in 6A North)
What was the last date I saw the state tournament field? Or what was the last piece of the puzzle in each class?
AAAA: January 27 with Maple Grove and Andover
AAA: January 26 with Rock Ridge
AA: February 3 with Albany
A: March 2 with Fosston
PP100S
We are in the stratosphere now. 95.72 pp100 for the week. There were only five games over the course of the politician interrupted week with four Centurions in the mix —as it should be with state tournament berths on the line. The 95.72 is 10 higher than last week’s best. It is 24 points better than the low in week 9. Does this mean the state will sparkle and shine with great numbers? My guess is no. The disruption of routines (staying away from home, different sleeping and eating patterns) plus the perceived pressure, and sightlines, and bigger court will push the numbers down off this lofty perch probably something closer to the low 80s.
Winners were at 110 in week 16, while losers were at 81.42. Think about that…. Losers were better than 11 weeks during the year. There was one AAA game and they landed at 95.75. The four A games were only a fraction off at 95.71.
THE BEST THIS SEASON
| Week | Leader | Pp100 | All pp100 |
| 1 | Minnetonka | 122.2 | 80.18 |
| 2 | Rosemount | 138.1 | 76.78 |
| 3 | Duluth Marshall | 115.7 | 78.23 |
| 4 | Lakeville North | 127.5 | 75.65 |
| 5 | Burnsville | 88.2 | 73.14 |
| 6 | Mankato East | 105.3 | 75.73 |
| 7 | Fairmont | 108.0 | 81.26 |
| 8 | Ogilvie | 115.8 | 80.83 |
| 9 | Rochester Lourdes | 96.6 | 71.82 |
| 10 | Benilde-St. Margaret’s | 105.6 | 83.9 |
| 11 | Pelican Rapids | 118.2 | 81.26 |
| 12 | Shakopee | 111.1 | 76.14 |
| 13 | St. Peter | 120.6 | 82.58 |
| 14 | Walker-Hackensack-Akeley | 120.0 | 82.44 |
| 15 | Underwood | 118.0 | 84.66 |
| 16 | Mountain Iron-Buhl | 128.6 | 95.72 |
Notice the bold…. Nine teams are alive for the state title still….pretty impressive. Contrast that to the individual listing below and those still alive,
31 CLUB
With five games there were nine additions to the 31 Club, indeed two made the 41 Club and one (Morgan Mathiowetz of Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s) got to the coveted 51 Club. She was the only one whose team was defeated. The other eight players won. Buffalo Lake-Hector-Stewart had three members; Springfield and DeLaSalle had a pair.
Seniors, with the clock running out on their hopes and dreams, led the way with four members. Juniors and sophs each had two. Mathiowetz was the only Frosh.
THE BEST THIS SEASON
| Week | Player | School | Grad | Score |
| 1 | Maddyn Greenway | Providence | 2026 | 56 |
| 2 | Tori Oehrlein | Crosby-Ironton | 2026 | 68 |
| 3 | Chloe Johnson | Duluth Marshall | 2028 | 63 |
| 4 | Jocelyn Land | Holy Family | 2024 | 49 |
| 5 | Livi Downs | Mankato West | 2026 | 44 |
| 6 | Lauren Bengston | Cretin-Derham Hall | 2024 | 42 |
| 7 | Rylie Cother | Jackson County Central | 2025 | 54 |
| 8 | Grace Heins | Ogilvie | 2024 | 51 |
| 9 | Katelyn Olson | JWP | 2026 | 38 |
| 10 | Mattea Henry | Woodbury | 2024 | 53 |
| 11 | Alexis Rose | Becker | 2024 | 57 |
| 12 | Catherine Walker | Breck | 2025 | 40 |
| 13 | Rylie Cother | Jackson County Central | 2025 | 64 |
| 14 | Addison Hoof | Lester Prairie | 2025 | 49 |
| 15 | Gabrielle Fineday | Cass Lake-Bena | 2025 | 46 |
| 16 | Morgan Mathiowetz | Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s | 2027 | 52 |
Mathiowetz is the only freshman to make the top of the list….so far. She is the ninth member of the 51 Club to enter.
Only the first two weeks of the year had players whose teams are still alive for state tournament titles (those in bold).
QRF
All the teams that are left have been charted. That leaves me at 155 in a row, and missing 17 in the quest for 200.
| Rank | Seen | % |
| 1-10 | 10 | 100 |
| 1-25 | 25 | 100 |
| 1-50 | 50 | 100 |
| 1-75 | 75 | 100 |
| 1-100 | 100 | 100 |
| 1-125 | 125 | 100 |
| 1-150 | 150 | 100 |
| 1-175 | 171 | 97.7 |
| 1-200 | 183 | 91.5 |
| 1-225 | 196 | 87.1 |
| 1-250 | 208 | 83.2 |
| 1-275 | 219 | 79.6 |
| 1-300 | 223 | 74.3 |
The biggest fish left that got away? Maranatha at 156.
As for the completeness of each class
AAAA: 100%
AAA: 85.94%—9 to go
AA: 54.33%—58 to go
A: 36.73%—93 to go
SOLOISTS
The soloist is down to one: Albany. Delano was stopped by Benilde-St. Margaret’s in the 6AAA final.
Was 2 now 1
AAAA: none
AAA: none
AA: Albany
A: none
Danger ahead: Albany is the #2 seed in AA and faces Rochester Lourdes in the quarters. Survive that and it more than likely will be #3 Minnehaha, no picnic—especially since the Redhawks believe they should be seeded higher. Survive that and another potential IMAC team awaits in the title match up: #1 Providence.
STREAKING
Again, another week, another new leader in AAAA—Minnetonka takes over as East Ridge faltered in the 4AAAA final. There is a new leader in A as Southwest MN Christian replaces Hayfield. Benilde-St. Margaret’s has the longest streak going at 21.
AAAA: 8 Minnetonka
AAA: 21 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
AA: 20 Albany.
A: 10 Southwest MN Christian
Will this list look the same next Sunday?
ROAD AHEAD
State has arrived. Williams Arena (and the vicinity) is the epicenter of the girls’ basketball scene.
SEEDING THE STATE
So, the REAL seeds are out. With all eight #1 seeds advancing we are looking at what promises to be the “best” field. I expect A to have the “best” quarterfinal action. My speculation is there will be some running time exhibitions in some quarterfinals of the classes. The 4/5 matchups promise to be the most competitive in every class. The semis across the board look to be compelling.
Let’s check that with me last week, me in week one and me last March.
| AAAA | REAL | Me W15 | Me W 1 | Me March 2023 |
| 1 | Hopkins | Tonka | Tonka | Tonka |
| 2 | Minnetonka | Hopkins | LN | Wayzata |
| 3 | STMA | MG | STMA | LN |
| 4 | Maple Grove | STMA | Hopkins | STMA |
| 5 | Lakeville North | LN | MG | MG |
| 6 U | Rosemount | Rosemount | Roseville | Stillwater |
| 7 U | Andover | Andover | Andover | Eagan |
| 8 U | White Bear Lake | East Ridge | Rosemount | Centennial |
| AAA | REAL | Me W15 | Me W 1 | Me March 2023 |
| 1 | Benilde-St. Margaret’s | BSM | Alex | BSM |
| 2 | DeLaSalle | DLS | BSM | Stewartville |
| 3 | Alexandria | Alex | Hill-Murray | Alex |
| 4 | St. Peter | Byron | Stewartville | DLS |
| 5 | Stewartville | St. Peter | Totino-Grace | St. Peter |
| 6 U | Rock Ridge | Rock Ridge | St. Peter | Monticello |
| 7 U | Totino-Grace | Monticello | Cretin-DH | Grand Rapids |
| 8 U | Mpls Roosevelt | Mpls Roosevelt | Grand Rapids | Mahtomedi |
| AA | REAL | Me W15 | Me W 1 | Me March 2023 |
| 1 | Providence | Providence | Providence | Providence |
| 2 | Albany | Minnehaha | Albany | Albany |
| 3 | Minnehaha | Albany | D Marshall | Goodhue |
| 4 | New London-Spicer | NLS | Minnehaha | Minnehaha |
| 5 | Crosby-Ironton | CI | Perham | Crosby-Ironton |
| 6 U | Waterville-E-M | Perham | Roch Lourdes | Perham |
| 7 U | Roch Lourdes | Cotter | NLS | GSL |
| 8 U | Perham | Glencoe-SL | GSL | NLS |
| A | REAL | Me W15 | Me W 1 | Me March 2023 |
| 1 | Goodhue | Goodhue | Goodhue | MIB |
| 2 | Mountain Iron-Buhl | Hancock | MIB | Hayfield |
| 3 | BLHS | MIB | Hancock | BLHS |
| 4 | Underwood | BLHS | BLHS | WHA |
| 5 | SW MN Christian | Minneota | KN | Hancock |
| 6 U | Fosston | Mayer Luth | WHA | KN |
| 7 U | Walker-H-A | Kelliher-Northome | Mayer Luth | SW MN Chr |
| 8 U | Mayer Lutheran | Braham | Minneota | United Christian |
So, the upshot? Last March was a mess in AAAA. After the summer sort out of players and teams in new sections the best was AAAA in week one. The only fly in the ointment there was section 4 with the revolving door of Roseville, Stillwater, East Ridge before WBL winning out.
The next best look was AA with a couple of adjustments in week one and 15. AAA was next with only a few tweaks from Week 15. Week 1 had a few more in AAA. Class A, my most recent chartings, was half off the whole time. Besides the anchors of Goodhue and MIB, BLHS was consistent throughout. Hancock was the big miss. Underwood got the Owls on the third go around. Another miss was Kelliher-Northome who was in three lists before getting dropped by Fosston in the 8A East finals.
Did they get the seeds right? Who is hurt? Mayer Lutheran should not face Goodhue in the opening round. That is also a tough draw for the Wildcats in a comparative sense. Next year that won’t happen with 1-8 to be seeded as volleyball and football have already approved for 2024. Expect the same in the winter sports for 2024-25.
What does history say? What seed is the best slot? The winning % of the one seed in each class:
AAAA: .688
AAA: .313
AA: .667
A: .444
Benilde-St. Margaret’s is fighting history with AAA #1s less than a third of the time winning the whole thing.
This is Hopkins’ 11th time as the #1 seed in AAAA. Providence’s third time as #1 in AA; Goodhue’s second time as #1 in A; This is Benilde-St. Margaret’s first time as a #1 seed.
Low seeds?
The #3 seed has won twice in AAAA; once in AA. The unseeded have won one time in AAA and A showing how rare that feat is—sorry WBL, Rosemount, Andover, WEM, Perham, Lourdes….you are fighting history.
Getting a seed. All the leaders in this category coming into the tournament add to their margins.
AAAA: Hopkins 13
AAA: DeLaSalle 10
AA: Minnehaha 9
A: Mountain Iron-Buhl 9
Has there ever been a year where all the #1 seeds won the tournament? Yes. Once. Only once. 2018:
A: Lyle-Pacelli
AA: Sauk Centre
AAA: Cooper
AAAA: Eastview
This is a ten-year window (2014-to current).
Odds are not great (10%) that all survive this year.
Only AAAA and AAA were seeded starting in 2007. Then only once did both #1s win and that was right off the bat in 2007 with St. Paul Central and Becker. Then the numbers go to 2/15 (throw out the virus impacted years), or 13% chance.