This analysis is based on the video and the coding I did with each bird for each player. I measured who the bird traveled to and where to divided into six area: upper right & left; mid right & left and lower right & left. I could add where on the court and what movement patterns were used—-moving back, moving forward for example—but for this quick run down I am just focusing on the bird location. The hypothesis is that the player that gets the bird in the upper right segment has the advantage. This is where most winners come from, specifically the power game with smashes. By extension the location where the opponent takes the bird indicates greater bird control and sets up a beneficial return bird, more than likely in the top right shelf. Both state champions had big advantages with birds in the upper right segment.
| NAME | SCHOOL | GAME | UPPER | MID | LOWER | RIGHT | LEFT |
| singles | |||||||
| Phlower Vang | Highland Park | State title | .691 | .119 | .189 | .823 | .177 |
| Kimberly Tobar | Harding | State title | .328 | .182 | .490 | .498 | .502 |
| Phlower Vang | Highland Park | city title | .632 | .165 | .202 | .779 | .221 |
| Kimberly Tobar | Harding | city title | .377 | .223 | .400 | .667 | .333 |
| Doubles | |||||||
| Petersen/Coma | Edina | State title | .553 | .220 | .227 | .638 | .362 |
| Sangwang/Moua | Johnson | State title | .377 | .351 | .273 | .649 | .351 |
| Sangwang/Moua | Johnson | city title | .584 | .187 | .228 | .820 | .180 |
| Paw/ Htoo | Washington | city title | .535 | .139 | .326 | .619 | .381 |
| Petersen/Coma | Edina | Regular | .634 | .116 | .250 | .688 | .313 |
| Paw/ Htoo | Washington | regular | .289 | .237 | .474 | .519 | .481 |
Most of the action is taking place on the right side of the body as indicated above. But Phlower Vang kept Kimberly Tobar bottled up on the left side of her midline. The difference was steep .325 in the title match. The week before the difference was only .112. Vang also kept the bird lower in the title match. Again the upper level difference was hugely in favor of Vang by an even larger score .363. On the doubles side of the ledger the Edina pair held the upper hand in upper birds .176. But the Johnson duo had just a slight difference on the right/left question only .009. Edina really had the advantage on the right /left against Washington (they would be the two pair in state) with a .169. Johnson was better than that against the same Wash pair in the city title match .201. So if we triangulate the situation with Johnson their right side advantage shrunk by .171 vs. Edina. Edina’s right side dropped .050. The upper bird count saw Edina’s numbers shrink by .081 between the Wash and Johnson match. The Governors saw their upper bird tally fall by a much bigger score of .207.
To me the bird in the upper right shelf is like giving the opponent a free ball (as in volleyball) or a turnover (as in basketball). This is sending the bird right into the heart of the other player’s power zone. The overwhelming number of smashes originated in that top shelf corner. It is pretty hard to smash the bird when taking it on your shoelaces.
Now let us take a look at the kill percentages from various spots. The equation for kill % is (winners-errors) / attempts. In volleyball a score of .300 is considered good. Kind of like batting average in baseball. However you can go negative.
| NAME | SCHOOL | GAME | UR | UL | MR | ML | LR | LL |
| singles | ||||||||
| Phlower Vang | Highland Park | State title | .049 | -.154 | .045 | -.429 | -.083 | -.300 |
| Kimberly Tobar | Harding | State title | .200 | -.083 | .050 | -.120 | -.052 | -.095 |
| Phlower Vang | Highland Park | city title | .164 | -.100 | -.217 | .000 | -.722 | -.111 |
| Kimberly Tobar | Harding | city title | .151 | -.074 | -.132 | -.103 | -.224 | -.182 |
| Doubles | ||||||||
| Petersen/Coma | Edina | State title | .138 | -.050 | -.118 | .071 | -.067 | -.059 |
| Sangwang/Moua | Johnson | State title | -.044 | -.231 | -.121 | -.048 | -.227 | -.100 |
Tobar in the championship game, using this scale, outperformed Vang across all six categories. So qualitatively Tobar was strong. Where Vang was strong was in pure winner totals across six categories: a whopping 30 in the top right shelf to the dozen for Tobar. Take away the Vang errors and the plus count was seven. As you can see Tobar was effective from the top right shelf at a .200 clip.
Tobar just did not have the same opportunities. If Tobar had as many birds in the top right corner she would have ended up with a plus 30—-23 more points than Vang in that neighborhood. Vang’s winners were 46 total on the right, 4 on the left. Tobar was 22 on the right and 15 on the left. Vang kept Tobar on the defensive all night.
The same pattern existed in the city title match. Vang’s right-side winners equaled 41 with only five on the left side of midline. Tobar ended up with 29 and nine. Notice the Vang vulnerability on the lower right side in the city match…. almost every bird hit to the lower right side was a point for Tobar…a negative .722 clip.
As for Petersen & Coma of Edina had more winners on the right side of midline 18-10. Coma in the top right shelf was hitting at .192; Peterson was at .094. The Johnson duo was negative across all six categories. Sangwang was -.143 there; Moua -.118.
And one last look at serving decisions. Using only the singles title match:
| NAME | SCHOOL | GAME | UR | UL | MR | ML | LR | LL |
| Where | ||||||||
| Vang | HP | State 1st | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 31 |
| Tobar | Harding | State 1st | 51 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Winners | scored | |||||||
| Vang | HP | 0 | 0 | .667 | .000 | .524 | .355 | |
| Tobar | Harding | .373 | 0 | .500 | 0 | .000 | 1.000 |
Here there was almost no mystery where the serve was going from Tobar to Vang 91% of the time. Tobar was receiving the bird on the lower end of the scale 86.7% of the time. But again, no smashes come below the knees. With the final set Vang the lower left 13 out of the 19 attempts or 68%. And as indicated in the winner percentages that was a better location for Vang.
The implications for training or battle planning is to keep the bird away from the top right area of the opponent. Put the bird below the knees and on top of the shoes. Keeping the bird more on the opponent’s left side is advantageous. Setting up practices where if a player sends the bird up to the right that players score reverts to zero, or birds hit in the lower reaches that score are worth two. However you want to create the architecture for victory and the points you want to emphasize should pay off in dividends.
Next posting will be on the final records for 2024 for teams; and the individual and coaching career win totals.