GROUND HOG DAY

It seems like I was living the life of Phil Connor this week—at least on Monday and Saturday— as I found my way to Rochester. This week should have been named Rochester Week as I charted all four teams. Well….three and a half actually. Monday featured Mayo at home against Red Wing in a meaningful Big 9 game. The Wingers flew away with that win giving Med City their only loss in the bunch. Saturday was supposed to be a triple header. First off JM at home against Faribault. Neither are in danger of cracking the top 100 at this point, but I figured it would be good to see a half of action. The game was scheduled for 1:30 pm. One half and then off to Lourdes for a 2:30 start against Dover-Eyota. Doable since it is only five minutes away. Nope. The JM JV game went to overtime meaning everything is pushed back. I only got the first 11 minutes charted in that game before I pulled up stakes. It turns out I could have probably stayed. The Lourdes JV game was also close and did not end on time. Meaning the battle of the Eagles was delayed. I got the full Lourdes and full Century games under my belt.

On Ground Hog Day itself I was 180 degrees opposite Rochester and was at Esko. The home of the Eskomos is the igloo. Appropriate considering the temps outside were -11.

Three times this week I was anchored to Mahtomedi. But this was a very productive week when it came to the top 100. Mayo, Red Wing, Lourdes, Lakeville South and Rochester Century all were charted. That brings me up to 100% in the top 50—make that top 63. There are eight teams left to cross off. The going this week will not be in the five category. If I can get two teams I will be happy. It looks like Wednesday and Saturday will be fishing in empty waters.

SOUTH SUBURBAN & METRO EAST COMPLETED

Two more conferences were finished up this week with Tartan the last Metro East team to be check listed and Lakeville South the last South Suburban team to be viewed. The South Suburban is one of the power five conferences in the Metro—-our version on the NCAAs listing. The Metro East is in the shadow of the Suburban East and is primarily a AAA conference.

Conference	w-l	PP100	Best	team
Lake	8-3	92.25	117.9	Eden Prairie
Metro East	14-14	85.22	153.6	Mahtomedi
Lake Superior	6-6	82.71	122.7	Proctor
Metro West	4-4	81.96	103.2	Chaska
Suburban East	4-7	78.6	103	Roseville
South Suburban	5-6	77.65	111.5	Shakopee
Metro East-no m	1-1	68.20	87.7	Hill-Murray
Metro East-m	1-9	63.58	87.7	Hill-Murray

 

So, what to make of this chart. The rank is listed by pp100. Rightly the Lake is on top. Then the Metro East? Let’s dial it back a second and examine it more closely. I chart all the Mahtomedi games. Right now they have yet to lose in the conference. I have only seen two conference teams play outside that regimen. And they split 1-1 with the pp100 probably closer to reality at 68.2. That puts the Metro East at the bottom of the conferences so far. Some of the other conferences have matched up in conference, some non-conference.

Another item to look at is the “best” from each conference. The school at the top in each conference looks about right, but….who are the opponents. Some of the “bests” are against teams with wins you can count on one hand. There really are only two teams on that list that I would consider legit—-Eden Prairie’s mark against a top 10 team East Ridge; and Chaska’s, also against a top 10 team. Who you plays matters. I am sure many teams would get to the 153 Mahtomedi enjoyed against St. Paul Humboldt.

I think it is important to note that the South Suburban used to be mentioned in the same breath as the Lake Conference. There has been a decline in production from that league. It used to hover near the 90s. Now it is south of 80. There is a widening gap between haves and have nots. This is true even in the same league. This is where the numbers bottom out. The “worst” of the past were not nearly as low as they are today. The best mark in the 31 Club reached 32 and that belongs to Madison McCollum of Eagan in their win over Edina. Rosemount’s Ava Thompson is the only other member. Two for that entire conference. That is probably one reason the overall pp100 is way down.

SECTION 4AAA COMPLETED

Or is it? St. Paul Johnson closed up shop after five losses. I did not chart them. That leaves only six teams in business. They have been charted. This is the first AAA section to be check listed.

Once more with the Mahtomedi effect—-Most of the action did happen with the Zephyrs as the opponent. When I take out Mahtomedi the pp100 drops 18 on offense it drops to 73.5. When I take the Zephs out of the equation completely the pp100 still drops, but only by 13.

Section	w-l	PP100	Best	team
2AAAA	7-3	91.6	117.9	Eden Prairie
3AAAA	4-5	74.0	102.8	Rosemount
7AAAA	4-4	74.09	90.2	Cambridge-Isanti
8AAAA	6-3	73.9	98.6	St. Michael-Albertville
4AAA all	15-9	91.3	153.6	Mahtomedi
4AAA-m	2-4	73.5	87.7	Hill-Murray
4AAA-no m	2-1	78.9	87.7	Hill-Murray

Again, context matters when looking at the “best” team. The sections are probably a better representation, however. I think all the AAAAs would be legit. Rosemount’s mark came against Andover, C-I against Bloomington Jefferson, and STMA’s against Bismarck Century. Most have winning marks. None of those three are at the bottom of the barrel.

There have been eleven entries into the 31 Club from section 4AAA. Eight of those marks belong to four Zephyrs. Two made the 41 Club on different occasions with one to spare (42) Sonya Potthoff and Mya Wilson. Only three others joined the 31 Club. Greta Schumann of St. Anthony had a 32 in the win last Saturday over Two Rivers.

TEAM REVIEW

What goes down must come up. Last week’s 74 improved to 77.84 this week. Winners were up one to 93.81. Losers improved even more by 6.7 to 61.9. You can thank Lakeville South for lifting all those boats with a 93.4, better than three winners on the week. Mahtomedi fired on all cylinders with a 118.1 in the Tuesday win at Tartan. Three other teams were over 100. Three teams could not crack 50—make that 46 in the losses. AAA led the way with 79.5, but wait—if we eliminate three Mahtomedi games in skids down to 59.3. AAAA stayed close to the week’s average with 77.02. AA was behind slightly with 76.57. A, or should I say South Ridge, the only team charted in that class, had a 74. Two of the games were “upsets” in that the lower QRF team won—-Red Wing started the week with that win over Mayo, Century closed with a win over visiting Lakeville South. That was the game of the week as well with the losing team’s pp100 93.4, which makes it the “best.” It was the only game that went down to the wire as LS rallied from an 11 point deficit with 2:18 left. Closed the margin to 58-57 with about 12 ticks left. Century made the first of two free throws to make it 59-57, but an over and back violation torpedoed the rally with five seconds left. The Panthers added two free throws with two seconds left.

This game also had two 1000 milestones, both of which were coaches daughters—-the first time two opponents with coaches hit the mark. Opponents getting 1000 has happened nine times in state history. Taylor Clarey of Century was the first to get there at the 17:10 mark of the second half to make it 25-17 Century. Finley Ohnstad made it at 5:20 which closed the gap to 49-39. Both players are juniors. Ohnstad’s parents Angie Iverson (coach) and Mitch both reached 1000. We are checking the records for both parents making the mark along with a daughter.

WEEK AHEAD

The Saturday options are limited this week to only 39. Recent weeks have been over 40. I don’t believe I will be headed down US52 this week. Four of the first five weeks of calendar year 2023 I have made my way down the southeast corner of the state. That won’t happen in the next few.

31 CLUB

We went up one player to six this week in the 31 Club. Flying to the top of the list this week was Red Wing senior Sammi Chandler with a 36 in the take down on the road of Rochester Mayo. She racked up 24 points to get the head start. Five of the players made the century club as well (pp100s of 100 or better). Chandler missed the double/double being bested by 17 points. That top spot went to Rochester Lourdes senior Vivica Bretton with a 177. The Esko vs. South Ridge game was the only one with multiple players making the club. In this case one from each team.

UNBEATEN

The two remaining unbeatens stayed that way in week 10. This week has a mega game on Feb 6 BLHS faces subsection 2A North behemoth Mayer Lutheran on the road. They close the week on the road at the #1 team in the 2A South subsection Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s. NLS travels to Sauk Centre on Saturday afternoon.

AAAA 0: none
AAA 0: none
AA 1: New London-Spicer
A 1: Buffalo Lake-Hector-Stewart

STREAKING

Change at AAAA with Chaska replacing Rochester Mayo who held the top spot until the loss Monday to Red Wing. We are also closing in on the 20s. The three non-AAAA classes are poised for that mark this week.

AAAA: 14 Chaska
AAA: 19 Grand Rapids
AA: 19 New London-Spicer
A: 19 Henning

SEARCH FOR 100

Eight teams to go for 100. Three regular season weeks. The needed number is 2.7 per week.  Grading out I am A+ in 10, 25, 50. A in 75, 100; B in 125; C in 150; D in 175, 200, 225.

Looking at the top 10s I am at 100% in AAAA, AAA; AA; only 40% in A. Getting to 100 involved the Roch trips Monday and Saturday.

Looking at the “seeding the state” 100% in AAAA & AAA; 87.5% in AA; 37.5% in A

The #1s (according to QRF) in each section is 100% in AAAA & AAA; 70% in AA; only 23.1% in A. Guess where most of my remaining time will be spent during sections.

We are at a final four in the 64 AAAA quest—or 93.8%.

My Rochester week eliminated several big fishes. Now we move from the southeast corner to the southwest corner with Luverne the newest biggest fish at #64.

Measure/In/%/Improvement
1-10/10/100%/-
1-25/25/100%/+8
1-50/50/100%/+6
1-75/64/96%/+8
1-100/82/92%/+6
1-125/106/84.8%/+7.2
1-150/117/78%/+6.7
1-175/120/68.6%/+3.5
1-200/129/64.5%/+5.5
1-225/135/60%/+4.6
1-250/140/56%/+4.4
1-275/142/51.6%/+4.0
1-300/143/47.7%/—

SEEDING THE STATE

Some reshuffling of the deck chairs. One new addition in A—Badger-Greenbush-Middle River.

AAAA

1. Hopkins (6)
2. Chaska (2)
3. Michael-Albertville (8)
4. East Ridge (4)
5. Maple Grove (5)
6. Rosemount (3)
7. Lakeville North (1)
8. Centennial (7)

AAA

1. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (6)
2. Becker (5)
3. Grand Rapids (7)
4. Stewartville (1)
5. DeLaSalle (3)
6. Jordan (2)
7. Alexandria (8)
8. Mahtomedi (4)

AA

1. Providence (5)
2. Albany (6)
3. New London-Spicer (3)
4. Goodhue (1)
5. Minnehaha (4)
6. Pequot Lakes (7)
7. Perham (8)
8. Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial (2)

A

1. Mountain Iron-Buhl (7)
2. Buffalo Lake-Hector-Stewart (2)
3. Henning (6)
4. Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa (5)
5. Hayfield (1)
6. Badger-Greenbush-Middle River (8)
7. Lac qui Parle Valley (3)
8. Heritage Christian (4)