Here are seven charts that help explain winning from the 2018 MN State AAU Tournament held last weekend at Jefferson.

OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING PERCENTAGE

Looking at this chart the team that reached 50 percent on offensive rebounds won six times without a loss. Holding a team to under 40 percent on offensive resulted in five wins.  Trend lines increased for the winners, and dipped for the losers.

TURNOVERS (X2)

There are two charts here: one showing touches per turnover; the other the

With the touches per turnover, I would prefer 30 touches or more. You can see the big margins in 8, 10 and 11. 15 or more touches was the dividing line with a 6-1 record. Only in ninth grade did the winner have a lower total than the loser, but that was also the closest game of the day.

The turnover ratio chart is somewhat different than the touches per turnover. The winner line is supposed to be lower. The only time where the losing team had a better rate came in fifth grade.  It is interesting to note that the fourth grade winners had the same turnover ratio as the sophomore division.  As one would expect trend lines fell throughout the day. This indicates ball handling and decision making improves with age.

EFFECTIVE FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE & FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS

Another two charter

This chart defies a clear trend line. Three times the losing team had a better effective field goal percentage, and all occurred in the more veteran ages. A 35 percent mark yielded a 5-3 mark. The trend lines here both rise as teams get older, but the winner trend line comes in at 38, and the loser trend line even higher at 42.

Perhaps a better indication is the total field goal attempts

Here the winners do have the upper hand. In 8, 9 and 10, where the effective field goal rate was higher, the attempts were lower explaining the wins better. The trend lines here were relatively flat for both.  Getting 50 or more attempts yielded a 7-2 mark.

FREE THROWS (X2)

We look at free throw rate (ft attempts over field goal attemps) and straight up ft attempts.

This is another factor where a losing team topped the winner in four games (5, 6, 9 & 10). Free throw rate trended down throughout the day. 28 percent seemed to be the dividing line with a 6-1 record. The strangest numbers came in 9th grade with the winner only at 3.3.

Winners attempted more free throws in six of the eight games. The biggest margin came in eighth grade. A big margin in fifth grade did not lead to a victory however.

WHAT TO EMPHASIZE?

The best indicator in this tournament pointed to an emphasis on offensive rebounds.  Next came taking care of the ball, no matter how you measure it. The shooting numbers were not as strong as one would expect at this level. Quantity was more important than  Quality.  We may revisit the quantity/quality debate in the coming days.

Type (break point)	W	L	%
Off Rebound % (49.67)	6	0	1.000
Touch/TO (21.52)	4	0	1.000
TO Rate (18.88)	4	0	1.000
FGA (55.88)	4	0	1.000
FTA (18.5)	5	1	0.833
EFG% (34.55)	5	3	0.625
FT Rate% (34.18)	3	2	0.600